When it rains we usually say, “Rain, rain, come again.” But when monsoon-triggered rain is about to retreat, it is not always a comforting thought. The extreme rain events of the past fortnight in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Bengal underline that point.
Maximum Temperature Scenario
Before examining the sudden floods and cloudburst situations in parts of northern India, Mumbai and Kolkata, it is important to review the maximum temperature trend in September over the past four years.
Despite recording 741.4 mm of rainfall—North India’s highest since 1950 (1988 saw 813.5 mm)—this September has been warmer and more humid than last year. Until 19 September, the average maximum temperature stood at 34.2 °C compared to 33 °C in 2024. A dry spell from 7 to 17 September pushed mercury levels higher, with a peak of 36.3 °C on 16 September.
By comparison, the September highs were 37.4 °C on 24 Sept 2024, 40.1 °C on 5 Sept 2023, and 38 °C on 1 Sept 2022.
September is meant to mark the transition from hot, humid weather to cooler days as the monsoon retreats. Yet this year the usual signs were absent, helping fuel the recent devastation.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared the monsoon withdrawn from the NCR and North India—including Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh—on 24 September, a day earlier than normal. The fallout has been severe, demanding detailed review before normalcy can return. Notably, this was the earliest withdrawal since 2002; last year’s retreat came late, on 2 October.
Quantum of Rainfall
Since June, the National Capital Region has logged 905 mm of rain, 38 percent above average. The annual normal is 774 mm, while north-west India saw a 29 percent surplus at 774.7 mm.
Delhi’s monthly breakdown: June 107.1 mm, July 259.3 mm, August 401.1 mm, and September 136.1 mm.
Was It a Special Monsoon?
Indeed, this monsoon was remarkable—but not unprecedented. September 2021 was the wettest in 141 years, the IMD notes. Human distress and complaints then echo the experience of September 2025.
Recent Floods and Cloudbursts
Floods, cloudbursts and landslides are common during the monsoon, but scientists warn that climate change and haphazard development now amplify both frequency and intensity. Sedimentation, river-course shifts and unplanned construction are aggravating factors.
Take the Dharali incident: despite rumours, the August 5 devastation was not due to a cloudburst, as rainfall that day did not exceed 35 mm. Even a week later it was only 45 mm. Instead, very heavy rain about 7 km upstream likely triggered the disaster. Unchecked commercial expansion along the Kheer Ganga river worsened the impact.
The memory of the June 2013 Kedarnath tragedy—where relentless rain spared only the millennium-old Shiva temple—remains fresh. Similarly, the 2014 monsoon brought severe destruction across Uttarkashi district.
Jammu & Kashmir
Heavy September rain brought unusual devastation to Ramban, Kishtwar and the wider Jammu region. The 2014 Srinagar flood—among South Asia’s worst—had already shown how the Jhelum in spate can engulf 853 sq km of land, crops and homes, without any human trigger.
Dehradun & Sahastradhara
In the Sahastradhara area near Dehradun, river surges caused destruction twice in less than a month. Shops, stalls, hotels and footpaths on the riverbanks were badly damaged, many swept away. Residential colonies between Sahastradhara and Dehradun suffered irreparable losses.
Flooding in Mumbai and Neighbouring Areas
For Mumbai, waterlogged streets, stalled suburban trains and disrupted metro and monorail services are routine monsoon scenes. But the latest floods struck during the retreating phase. Mumbai, Thane and Navi Mumbai remain vulnerable to cyclones at least twice a year.
Kolkata’s Record Downpour
On 23 September, Kolkata received 251.4 mm of rain in just two hours—the city’s highest single-day total since 1986 and sixth highest in 137 years. Ten people died, nine of them electrocuted, as waterlogged roads, submerged neighbourhoods, suspended metro services and flight cancellations unfolded within hours.
Overflow from the Farakka barrage may have worsened the deluge. Damage was so severe that the West Bengal government advanced Durga Puja holidays for state-run schools and blamed the Calcutta Electricity Supply Company for the electrocution deaths. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee promised government jobs to one family member of each victim, while urging an end to political point-scoring.
The low-pressure system that triggered the downpour also flooded many Puja pandals, dampening the festive spirit across southern West Bengal and Jharkhand. The IMD has warned of further rain in the region.
September: The Transition Month
The Brahmaputra and Ganga basins remain India’s most flood-prone, followed by the Mahanadi and Narmada. September usually sees temperature fluctuations as the country moves from the rainy season toward winter. People often fall ill amid these swings, a reminder of how closely weather affects health and mood—sunshine lifting spirits while overcast skies and humidity can dampen them.
As the fortnight ahead unfolds, the next chapter of India’s weather remains uncertain. Fingers crossed.
By Alok K. Shrivastava, Ex-Chief Secretary, Government of Sikkim