India's Naval No-Show: Prioritizing US Ties Over BRICS Solidarity in a Tense Geopolitical Landscape

In the swirling currents of global power plays, India's decision to skip the "Will for Peace 2026" BRICS naval exercise off South Africa's coast has sparked intense debate. Officially, New Delhi downplays the absence, insisting the drills were a unilateral South African initiative rather than a core BRICS event. Yet, beneath this diplomatic veneer lies a calculated strategy: India's reluctance to antagonize a volatile US administration under President Donald Trump, whose open hostility toward BRICS threatens ongoing trade talks and economic stability. This move underscores India's precarious balancing act—championing multipolarity through BRICS while safeguarding vital ties with Washington—but risks eroding the bloc's cohesion and India's strategic autonomy at a time when global tensions demand bolder alliances.

The exercise, which ran from January 9 to 16, 2026, involved warships from China, Russia, Iran, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and others, focusing on maritime security, rescue operations, and interoperability in strategic waters near key trade routes. Described by South African officials as a response to rising maritime threats, it marked the first major multilateral drill under the expanded BRICS+ framework, now comprising ten members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE, and Indonesia. Notably absent were founding members India and Brazil, with the latter attending only as an observer. Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal clarified that the event was "not a regular or institutionalised BRICS activity," emphasizing India's consistent non-participation in similar ad-hoc initiatives. Instead, India pointed to its involvement in the trilateral IBSAMAR exercises with Brazil and South Africa, last held in October 2024, as its preferred maritime collaboration in the region.

This explanation, however, crumbles under scrutiny when viewed against the backdrop of strained India-US relations. Since Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, bilateral ties have deteriorated sharply. Initial optimism—fueled by Modi's February 2025 Washington visit and commitments to defense and technology cooperation—gave way to punitive measures. In April, Trump imposed 25% "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods, escalating to 50% by August as punishment for India's continued purchase of discounted Russian oil amid the Ukraine conflict. These tariffs, the highest levied on any Asian nation, have jolted India's export-driven economy. Between April and December 2025, India-US trade reached $105.31 billion, but analysts project a 15-20% drop in 2026 if unresolved, affecting sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT services. Trump's administration has framed these as leverage to curb India's energy imports from Russia, which constituted over 40% of India's crude oil in 2025, saving billions amid global price volatility.

Critics, including former Indian diplomats, argue that Modi's government is "in no mood to displease" Trump, whose aversion to BRICS is well-documented. Trump has labeled BRICS an "anti-American bloc" and threatened 100% tariffs on members pursuing de-dollarization. This rhetoric aligns with broader US efforts to counter BRICS' growing influence, which now represents 45% of the world's population and 28% of global GDP, surpassing the G7 in purchasing power parity. By opting out of the naval drills, India avoids signaling alignment with a grouping that includes US adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran—especially amid reports of South Africa's internal probe into Iran's participation, which Pretoria feared could further strain its own shaky US ties.

Data on India's foreign policy trajectory supports this thesis. Historically, India has navigated non-alignment, but under Modi, it has deepened Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) ties with the US, Japan, and Australia as a hedge against China. Defense trade with the US hit $25 billion in 2025, including co-production of GE jet engines and Predator drones. In contrast, India's BRICS engagement has been muted; as 2026 chair, New Delhi has hosted only one low-key event for the summit's logo release, a far cry from the fanfare of its 2023 G20 presidency. This restraint reflects caution: joining the drills could jeopardize stalled US trade negotiations, where India seeks tariff relief and H-1B visa reforms amid threats of a "500% tariff sledgehammer" from US lawmakers over Russia ties.

Yet, this pragmatism borders on appeasement, potentially weakening BRICS' multipolar aspirations. The bloc's expansion in 2024-25 aimed to amplify the Global South's voice, with initiatives like the New Development Bank disbursing $35 billion in loans by 2025, rivaling Western institutions. India's absence from "Will for Peace" highlights internal fissures—divergent threat perceptions, with China and Russia viewing it as anti-US posturing, while India prioritizes Indo-Pacific stability. Analysts warn this could dilute BRICS' strategic weight, allowing the US to divide and conquer through bilateral pressures.

On the flip side, India's strategy yields short-term gains. Trade talks with the US remain "very near" completion, with the first tranche potentially easing tariffs on pulses and tech exports. Meanwhile, India pivots to alternatives: exports to China surged in December 2025, hitting $110.20 billion for April-December, outpacing US trade. A looming EU-India FTA, expected by late January 2026, could add $100 billion in bilateral trade over five years, bolstering resilience.

Ultimately, India's naval abstention reveals the limits of strategic autonomy in a bipolar world. By prioritizing US appeasement, New Delhi safeguards economic interests but risks alienating BRICS partners, especially as Trump’s isolationism—evident in US withdrawals from the International Solar Alliance and climate pacts—pushes the Global South toward alternatives. If trade talks falter, India may regret not leveraging BRICS for leverage. In 2026, as host of the BRICS summit, Modi faces a pivotal choice: reinforce the bloc's unity or let US pressures fracture it further. The stakes are high—India's global stature hinges on navigating these waters without capsizing its multipolar ambitions.