TARIFF THREATS: EMERGENCE OF TROIKA

The recent tariff threats have served as a wake-up call for India, which until now often relied on rhetoric whenever restrictions or bans were imposed by the US or the EU. Such measures have repeatedly destabilised India’s export–import balance, highlighting the risks of overdependence on Western markets.

Today, India is no longer a passive player. It is actively committed to diversifying trade networks and building alternative supply chain routes to secure economic resilience. With its rising global profile, India is determined to safeguard market access and supply stability. Crucially, it is not a pushover. Strategic and economic alignments with partners such as China and Russia have strengthened India’s influence within multilateral platforms like BRICS and the SCO. These partnerships provide resilience against unilateral trade measures and enhance leverage in global negotiations.

Tariffs as an Instrument of Negotiation

Tariffs have long been the choicest instrument of the US, not only in 2025 but earlier too — dating back to the 1930s. Former President Donald Trump elevated this tool under the banner of “America First.” He overturned established trade norms and imposed heavy tariffs, not just on adversaries, but even on partners like India.

This overreach, however, proved a self-inflicted wound. Tariffs triggered backlash from farmers in California, US businesses, global partners, and even Republican circles. Trump himself faced opposition from former advisors, business leaders like Elon Musk, and sections of his own party. Thus, tariffs as a political weapon brought not only external disputes but also domestic fractures.

Tariff and the Court

Judicial rulings have leaned on statutory interpretation, arguing that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not explicitly authorise tariffs, and on constitutional principles of non-delegation and separation of powers. For now, tariffs remain in place, but their legal validity is in limbo pending Supreme Court review. The coming months may determine whether tariffs remain an unchecked tool of the executive or whether constitutional safeguards rein them in.

The Unshakable Troika: India, China, and Russia

Parallel to these developments, the global order is transitioning from unipolarity toward multipolarity. Within this transformation, the triad of India, China, and Russia — often termed the “Unshakable Troika” — emerges as a strategic axis of balance and influence across Eurasia. Collectively, the three span vast geographies, command immense economic and military capabilities, and carry deep civilisational legacies.

Russia anchors the northern expanse with energy and defence capacities; China drives manufacturing and infrastructure; and India contributes technological services, human capital, and a crucial geostrategic location astride the Indian Ocean. Together, they represent a counterbalance to Western-led institutions such as NATO, AUKUS, and the G7.

Economically, their complementarity is striking — Russian resources, Chinese industrial might, and India’s services and technology sectors form a natural synergy. On the security front, India–Russia defence ties remain longstanding; Russia–China relations have deepened in response to Western sanctions; and India–China, despite post-Doklam and post-Galwan tensions, continue to maintain communication channels to prevent escalation.

Within frameworks like the SCO, this troika could evolve into a Eurasian security architecture. The partnerships provide India with greater resilience against unilateral trade measures and enhance its leverage in global economic negotiations. The message is clear: India is ready to defend its trade interests with firmness, adapt to shifting global dynamics, and assert its position as a decisive actor in the emerging multipolar world.

The 21st century is both an annihilator of unipolar dominance and a witness to the rise of multipolarity. Against this backdrop, the India–China–Russia troika stands out as a pivotal configuration with far-reaching geopolitical consequences. Whether it matures into a durable alliance will depend on political will, pragmatic diplomacy, and the recognition that their collective future outweighs individual disputes.

At the SCO, security, connectivity and opportunity emerged as fundamental issues. National interests and market dynamics moved alongside a congenial acceptance by the Troika. Xi Jinping came out with a new appeal — to keep defence and contentious issues separate and focus first on shared aspirations, shared goals, civilisational values and common challenges.

The chemistry and manoeuvring of the three world leaders — Xi, Modi and Putin — at the SCO caught attention like never before. India traversed a substantial patch of this journey from Kazan to Tianjin. In Kazan, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh refused to sign a declaration without mention of the Pahalgam terror attack. In Tianjin, Prime Minister Modi ensured the declaration was complete only with a full denouncement of the Pahalgam attack.

If consolidated, the Unshakable Troika could reshape the architecture of world politics, balance Western dominance, and secure Eurasian interests, ensuring that multipolarity is not just a theory but a lived global reality. If institutionalised, the Troika could evolve into a Eurasian security framework independent of NATO.

Donald Trump, ironically, is credited for the emergence of a new world order. So long as the Troika sustains momentum, and the Trump administration continues to be mired in frustration and policy missteps, the global order will steadily shift toward Eurasian consolidation.

Dr (Lt Col) Atul Tyagi, Advocate, Member SCBA, Delhi High Court, Author & Faculty in Practice

Contact: atultyagi100@gmail.com | 9540652090