Bihar Verdict Mirrors Exit Polls: NDA’s Sweeping Win Validates Predictions

The Bihar Assembly election results haMahagathbandhan’sear message - voters firmly rejected the Congress - RJD Mahagathbandhan and gave the BJP-led NDA a sweeping win. Interestingly, this is exactly what most exit polls had already hinted at.

Kamakhya Analytics had projected 167–187 seats for the NDA, and the final results came extremely close to this range. Matrix (147–167) and Today’s Chanakya (148–172) had also pointed towards an NDA majority, and their predictions turned out to be highly accurate as well.

Once the results were out, it became evident that Kamakhya Analytics had read the ground realities almost perfectly. Bihar’s politics is complex, caste dynamics, local issues, women voters, and regional strategies all shape the final outcome. Against this backdrop, Kamakhya’s detailed model, its careful survey design, booth-level sampling, and demographic mapping helped it capture voter sentiment with remarkable precision.

The estimates for the Mahagathbandhan were also close to the actual numbers. Kamakhya predicted 54-74 seats, while Today’s Chanakya projected 65-89 seats for the alliance. Both clearly indicated that the Mahagathbandhan was unlikely to come to power - which is exactly what happened.

Even the predictions for smaller parties held up well. Matrix estimated 5 seats for JSP/JSUP, while Axis My India predicted 0–2 seats, and these numbers were largely reflected in the final results. People’s Pulse (NDA 133–159, GA 75–101) and the Bhaskar Exit Poll (NDA 145–160, GA 73–91) were also broadly in sync with the real outcome. Other agencies including P-Mark, Polstrat, and People’s Insight similarly projected a clear NDA majority.

What stood out this time was that most agencies put serious effort into improving their sampling and ground coverage. Their surveys were more scientific, more data-driven, and more representative and the accuracy of the results shows that their effort paid off. These precise projections also proved wrong the Mahagathbandhan’s claim that exit polls were unreliable.