The Gulf Pivot: Pakistan’s Strategic Embrace and India’s Waning Influence

In a region where symbolism often outweighs substance, the recent diplomatic choreography between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has sent ripples through South Block and stirred unease across India’s strategic corridors. On September 17, 2025, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was received in Riyadh with a warmth and grandeur that rivalled, if not eclipsed, the reception Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi received on his previous visits.

But this was no mere ceremonial parity. It marked the prelude to a seismic shift in West Asian geopolitics: the signing of a formal mutual defense pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The agreement, unprecedented in both scope and symbolism, declares that any aggression against one nation will be treated as an attack on both. It institutionalizes a decades-old informal alliance, transforming Pakistan from a peripheral partner into a central pillar of Gulf security architecture.

For Saudi Arabia, grappling with eroding trust in U.S. security guarantees—especially after Israel’s recent precision strikes on Doha—the pact signals a clear strategic pivot. For Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state battered by economic crises, it is a lifeline: one of the world’s wealthiest monarchies courting its partnership.

Historically, Pakistan has played a quiet but consistent role in Gulf defense. Since 1967, over 8,000 Saudi personnel have trained under Pakistani forces, and a 1982 accord allowed Pakistani troops to be deployed for border protection and advisory roles. Yet these arrangements were informal, reactive, and largely invisible on the global stage. The September 2025 pact changes that. It is not merely a defense agreement—it is a declaration of intent, a psychological deterrent, and a geopolitical signal to rivals and allies alike.

India, which has cultivated deep economic and strategic ties with the Gulf over the past decade, finds itself under an uncomfortable spotlight. The Indian media’s response to Sharif’s reception—mirroring Modi’s own ceremonial welcome—was tinged with indignation and unease. The reality, however, is simpler and sobering: Gulf monarchies extend such courtesies to all visiting heads of state. The real story lies in outcomes. Pakistan, once diplomatically isolated and economically mocked, now holds a deal that could reshape its regional standing while opening doors for Saudi investment and defense cooperation.

For India’s strategic establishment, this development forces a reckoning. Has the NDA government’s Gulf influence begun to fray? Is New Delhi’s sway waning in a region once underpinned by trade, diaspora ties, and energy diplomacy?

The answer is nuanced. India remains a vital economic partner. Bilateral trade with the UAE crossed $85 billion in 2024, and remittances from the Indian diaspora continue to fuel Gulf economies. But diplomacy is not just about numbers—it is about leverage, timing, and strategic alignment. Pakistan’s alignment with Saudi Arabia comes at a moment of regional flux: Iran’s assertiveness, Israel’s unpredictability, and America’s gradual retreat have created a vacuum. In this space, Pakistan’s military strength and nuclear umbrella offer strategic depth that India, despite its economic heft, cannot replicate.

The brief border skirmish between India and Pakistan in May 2025 underscored Islamabad’s need for powerful patrons. The defense pact with Saudi Arabia offers deterrence, prestige, and a validation of relevance in a region where it was once sidelined. For India, the response must be strategic rather than symbolic: deepening engagement with Gulf states, renewing defense cooperation, and reasserting its role as a stabilizing force in West Asia.

Experts like Umair Jamal, writing for The Diplomat, suggest this pact could be the nucleus of an “Islamic NATO”—a coalition of Muslim-majority states wary of Israeli aggression and Iranian expansionism. If such a bloc emerges, India’s exclusion would carry both strategic and symbolic costs. The NDA government must therefore invest in tangible partnerships—joint exercises, defense technology transfers, and multilateral forums—to reaffirm India’s indispensability.

Economically, Pakistan stands to gain. Saudi financial aid, already exceeding $5 billion annually, could increase further. Joint military drills such as Al-Samsam may expand, and defense procurement could flow towards Islamabad. For a nation battling inflation, debt, and IMF conditionalities, this alliance offers both survival and prestige.

In conclusion, the Gulf’s pivot towards Pakistan is not a rejection of India but a recalibration of priorities. It reflects the fluidity of alliances in a region shaped by insecurity and ambition. India’s response cannot be indignation; it must be innovation—by deepening its strategic footprint, diversifying partnerships, and reaffirming its role as a responsible power. The Gulf is watching. So is the world.