Trump, Israel, and the Unravelling of NATO: How the Iran War Redrew Global Security Lines

Donald Trump’s latest threat to withdraw the United States from NATO, amid the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran, has shaken the foundations of transatlantic security. Israel’s push for swift military action has deepened fractures, leaving NATO allies reluctant to follow Washington’s lead and raising the spectre of a historic rupture in the alliance.

The unfolding crisis is not merely about Trump’s frustration with NATO’s spending imbalances; it is about the very survival of the alliance in a world where collective defence is being tested against unilateral adventurism. Since the war against Iran began in early 2026, Trump has repeatedly signalled that the US will exit “pretty quickly,” while reserving the right to conduct “spot hits” if Iran’s new leadership resists American demands. This rhetoric has been accompanied by his strongest suggestion yet that NATO is a “paper tiger” and no longer serves US strategic interests.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who convinced Trump that Iran could be swiftly subdued, has inadvertently accelerated NATO’s unravelling. The war has already entered its second month, and European allies remain hesitant to commit forces, citing domestic opposition and fears of escalation. Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer has openly declared that “this is not our war,” focusing instead on maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. His stance reflects a broader European reluctance to be drawn into Washington’s Middle Eastern entanglements.

The implications are profound. NATO, founded in 1949 to counter Soviet expansion, has endured despite the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. Yet today, its relevance is questioned not only by Trump but also by publics across Europe, who see defence spending as a drain on welfare budgets. Trump’s insistence that allies “fight for themselves,” and his suggestion that they “just take” oil from the Strait of Hormuz, underscore a transactional view of alliances that undermines the principle of collective defence.

Experts warn that a US withdrawal would embolden Russia, which has long viewed NATO expansion as a threat. Moscow could exploit divisions to push deeper into Eastern Europe, while China would see an opportunity to expand its influence in global security structures. Analysts also note that NATO’s deterrence rests heavily on US military power; without Washington, Europe would face immense pressure to rapidly build independent defence capabilities—a costly and politically divisive endeavour.

Energy security adds another layer of urgency. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global oil flows, driving up prices and fuelling public anxiety in Europe. Starmer’s emphasis on securing maritime routes highlights the vulnerability of Western economies to Middle Eastern instability. Trump’s blunt message to allies—buy American fuel or seize it themselves—illustrates the widening gulf between Washington and Europe.

Commentators argue that Trump’s threats are not idle. His skepticism of NATO dates back to his first term, when he demanded higher defence spending from allies. But the current escalation, tied to the Iran war, marks a turning point. If the US were to formally withdraw, it would be the first time in NATO’s history that its cornerstone member abandoned the alliance. Such a move would force Europe to confront uncomfortable realities: Can it defend itself without US backing? Can it maintain unity in the face of divergent national interests?

The geopolitical landscape is already fragile, with conflicts in West Asia, disruptions in energy supply chains, and rising populism in Europe. A NATO collapse would compound these challenges, leaving a vacuum that rivals would eagerly fill. Russia’s ambitions in Ukraine and beyond, coupled with China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, would test Europe’s resilience.

Ultimately, Israel’s gamble in pushing Trump toward war with Iran has triggered consequences far beyond Tehran. By deepening US-European rifts, it has accelerated NATO’s disintegration. Whether Trump follows through on his threat remains uncertain, but the mere possibility has already reshaped global security debates. The alliance that once symbolised Western unity now faces its gravest crisis, and the world watches as the transatlantic bond frays under the weight of unilateralism, energy turmoil, and strategic mistrust.