The political trajectory of Manipur over the past two decades is a study in how fragile peace arrangements, when left unattended, can mutate into prolonged crises with consequences far beyond the state’s borders.

The 2008 Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement between the Government of India, the Manipur state government, and Kuki-Zo insurgent groups was designed to contain violence. It laid down ground rules — designated camps, restrictions on recruitment, and a Joint Monitoring Group for compliance. But over time, the SoO drifted into the background. It never matured into a structured peace process, nor did it resolve underlying issues of land, identity, and governance. It became peace in suspension, not peace in consolidation.

That fragility exploded in May 2023, when ethnic clashes between Meitei and Kuki communities tore through Manipur. The violence left lives lost, tens of thousands displaced, and institutions unable to prevent escalation. The state government’s unilateral withdrawal from the SoO with certain Kuki groups only deepened mistrust and inflamed the conflict.

The People’s Union for Civil Liberties (PUCL) People’s Tribunal report of 2025 cast a harsh light on the violence. It concluded that the crisis was not a spontaneous eruption of ethnic anger but bore the marks of orchestration, state complicity, and targeted attacks. The findings reframed the debate: no longer about restoring law and order alone, but about accountability, justice, and reconciliation. While hailed by victim communities, the report was dismissed as biased by others — a sign of how divided Manipur remains not only in demography but also in memory and narrative.

Against this backdrop, the renewal of the SoO in September 2025 is both symbolic and strategic. Tied to the reopening of the Imphal–Moreh highway (NH-2), it seeks to signal a return to normalcy. Its timing is crucial: it comes ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s proposed visit to Manipur. For the Union government, the visit is meant to demonstrate control, reclaim political initiative, and reassure domestic as well as external observers that Manipur is back on the path of stability. But symbolism alone may not suffice. Without credible steps toward justice, transparent monitoring of the SoO, and relief for displaced families, the visit risks being dismissed as political theatre rather than a turning point.

Manipur’s crisis, however, is not confined to state or even national politics — it is embedded in South and Southeast Asia’s geopolitics. The state is India’s fragile doorway to the Act East Policy, a land bridge to Myanmar, and through it, to ASEAN. The India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Project hinge on secure and stable nodes in Manipur and Mizoram. Instability weakens India’s credibility as a regional connector, leaving more room for Chinese influence across Myanmar and into the Bay of Bengal.

New Delhi’s recent securitisation — fencing along the Myanmar border and suspension of the Free Movement Regime — underscores a security-first response to insurgency, arms trafficking, and refugee flows. Yet these measures disrupt ethnic continuities on both sides of the border, particularly among Nagas and Kukis. Without economic cushions and community dialogue, such measures risk deepening alienation and creating fresh reservoirs of discontent — vulnerabilities that external actors could exploit.

In the shifting alignments of Southeast Asia, India’s Northeast has ceased to be a periphery; it is now a frontline. A reconciled Manipur strengthens India’s claim as a credible regional partner. A fractured Manipur, by contrast, signals weakness and distraction, undermining India’s leverage with ASEAN at a time when China is expanding its influence through Myanmar.

The lesson is clear: the forgotten SoO of 2008 cannot simply be revived in 2025 as a technical fix. It must evolve into a political settlement rooted in truth, justice, and equitable governance. Modi’s proposed visit offers an opportunity to reset the narrative — but only if it acknowledges past failures, fulfils present commitments transparently, and situates Manipur’s future in the larger promise of the Act East Policy. Anything less risks turning another truce into another crisis deferred.