Diplomacy, Defense, and Double Games: The Geopolitics Behind Indo-Pak Tensions and Russian Maneuvering
On a single day, two carefully crafted statements came out of Moscow—one offering to mediate between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir conflict, and another directly supporting India after the Pahalgam terror attack, with President Vladimir Putin expressing solidarity and calling for justice. These are not mere diplomatic niceties; they represent calculated signals from a global power attempting to balance strategic interests while securing its long-term position in the ever-volatile South Asian theatre.
The contrast is striking. On one hand, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s call with his Pakistani counterpart presents Moscow as a neutral arbiter, eager to play a balancing role in the subcontinent’s disputes. On the other hand, President Putin’s assurance to Prime Minister Narendra Modi places Russia firmly on India’s side in condemning terrorism, implicitly pointing towards Pakistan as the source. This duality serves Russia's broader goals: maintain leverage over both countries, remain a dominant arms supplier, and prevent China from monopolizing influence in Islamabad.
Russia’s approach can be interpreted as a strategic hedging technique. With India, it has a long-standing relationship, especially in defense. As per SIPRI’s 2023 data, Russia accounted for approximately 45% of India’s arms imports over the past five years. India is among Russia's top three defense clients. At the same time, Pakistan, while historically closer to the U.S. and China in terms of military cooperation, has been gradually opening channels with Moscow—especially after the Afghanistan power reshuffle. Lavrov’s outreach ensures Moscow doesn’t cede all influence in Pakistan to China or Turkey.
Turkey, meanwhile, has inserted itself into the fray more provocatively. Reports suggest that Turkish fighter jets were deployed to Pakistan amidst the rising Indo-Pak tensions. This aligns with Ankara’s increasing attempts to emerge as a Muslim-world powerbroker, often taking adversarial positions against India on issues like Kashmir. Turkey’s move is not only ideological but strategic—it strengthens defense cooperation with Pakistan and gives Turkey a stake in a key Asian security hotspot.
Behind all this diplomatic choreography lies the shadow of the global arms industry. Armed conflicts or even sustained regional tensions fuel weapons demand, and major powers—Russia, France, the U.S.—stand to gain economically. According to a 2022 SIPRI report, global military expenditure reached an all-time high of $2.24 trillion, with arms manufacturers from just five countries accounting for over 75% of all major weapon sales. If a full-blown war between India and Pakistan were to occur (though unlikely due to nuclear deterrence), it would require resupply, upgrades, and logistical support at unprecedented scales—benefitting weapon lobbies across continents.
Russia, under Western sanctions post-Ukraine invasion, views arms exports as a critical lifeline for its economy. With dwindling demand from Europe and challenges in Africa, Moscow cannot afford to alienate either India or Pakistan. If India turns more toward Western suppliers like the U.S., France, or Israel, Russia risks losing billions in defense contracts. At the same time, Pakistan's openness to Russian energy and arms deals, especially with Chinese backing, offers an alternative revenue stream for Moscow.
China’s involvement in this dynamic is unavoidable. With billions invested in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and strategic stakes in Gwadar Port, Beijing sees Pakistani stability as essential. Any India-Pakistan escalation threatens China’s Belt and Road investments. China, too, is a major arms supplier to Pakistan, and in any prolonged conflict, Islamabad would rely on Chinese support as much as—if not more than—Russian or Turkish. Hence, any move by Russia in South Asia also factors into the larger chessboard with China.
Diplomatic experts like C. Raja Mohan have repeatedly emphasized that Russia’s balancing act is not ideological but transactional. Moscow seeks to remain relevant in multipolar Asia, especially as India diversifies its strategic partnerships with the West. Former Indian Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon once noted that “Russia doesn’t want to lose India but cannot afford to alienate new partners like Pakistan.” That encapsulates the current diplomatic moment.
Thus, what we are witnessing is not just statements but subtle maneuvering in a tightly interwoven geopolitical matrix—where terror incidents, mediation offers, military diplomacy, and arms economy converge. The global arms industry, worth hundreds of billions annually, thrives in zones of perpetual tension, and South Asia remains a prime arena. Peace is desirable but not always profitable; stability is preferred but not always pursued. In this game, every player—Russia, China, Turkey, the West—has a stake, a target, and a tactical narrative. And as always, it is the subcontinent that bears the weight of their strategic calculations.
