A political question has been repeatedly raised in Tamil Nadu ahead of the Assembly election campaign: why have Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah refrained from explicitly declaring Edappadi K. Palaniswami as the Chief Ministerial candidate when they campaign in the state?

The issue gained attention after comments made by Thuglak magazine editor S. Gurumurthy, who addressed the matter in a television interview and explained what he believes is the political reasoning behind the approach.

With the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections approaching, the alliance between the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been firmly in place. BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah, have repeatedly appealed to voters to support the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state.

However, leaders of the AIADMK have rejected the suggestion of a coalition government, maintaining that the party will secure a majority and form the government on its own.

AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami has also publicly stated that there will be no coalition arrangement and that the party aims to form a government independently.

Despite this, when Modi and Shah address campaign rallies in Tamil Nadu, they have not announced Palaniswami as the Chief Ministerial face. The only leader who has consistently referred to him as the CM candidate is Tamil Nadu BJP president Nainar Nagendran.

Question raised in interview

During an interview with a private television channel, Gurumurthy was asked why the BJP’s top leadership had avoided making such a declaration.

The question raised was why Modi and Amit Shah, while urging voters to support the NDA, had not formally projected Palaniswami as the Chief Ministerial candidate.

Responding to the question, Gurumurthy said the decision involves both political advantages and risks.

According to Gurumurthy, formally recognising a leader as the face of the campaign can bring both benefits and disadvantages.

He pointed out that Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin currently holds an advantage because he is already in office.

Drawing a parallel with national politics, Gurumurthy referred to Rahul Gandhi during the 2014 and 2019 general elections. He said the Congress had not officially declared Rahul Gandhi as its prime ministerial candidate, even though he was the principal face of the campaign.

Later, in 2019, following the suggestion of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi was projected as the Prime Ministerial face in Tamil Nadu.

According to Gurumurthy, political parties often weigh the potential gains and losses before officially projecting a leader.

Gurumurthy also suggested that the influence of individual leaders and their acceptability among voters is a factor political parties assess carefully in Tamil Nadu.He noted that Palaniswami himself has asserted that the AIADMK will form the government on its own.

Referring to an earlier political example, Gurumurthy mentioned former Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi. In 2006, even though the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) did not secure a full majority, Karunanidhi ran the government without formally sharing power with allies.

At that time, the Indian National Congress had around 25–26 MLAs supporting the government. Former Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa had described it as a minority government, yet Karunanidhi continued without offering a share in governance.

Possibility of coalition government

Gurumurthy said the current political situation in Tamil Nadu suggests that neither the AIADMK nor the DMK may easily secure a clear majority.

In such circumstances, he believes the state could see coalition politics emerge in the 2026 Assembly elections.

While both M. K. Stalin and Edappadi K. Palaniswami maintain that they will not run a coalition government, Gurumurthy said the evolving political landscape indicates that such a possibility cannot be ruled out.

He added that coalition governance could significantly change the political dynamics in Tamil Nadu, where the two major Dravidian parties have dominated politics for decades.