Chennai: With the Tamil Nadu Assembly election barely four weeks away, an opinion poll by Agni News Service has set off a political ripple, pointing to a possible churn in the western region, long considered a fortress of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

The survey projects that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance could secure 32 of the 50 seats in the Kongu belt, leaving the AIADMK with 18. The estimate, if borne out, would mark a significant breach in the opposition party’s traditional stronghold and has already triggered disquiet within its ranks.

Conducted between February 7 and March 12, the ANS poll places the DMK alliance, led by Chief Minister M. K. Stalin, at 44.9 per cent vote share, ahead of the AIADMK’s projected 38.5 per cent.

Actor Vijay’s political debut through the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is estimated to draw 9.7 per cent of the vote, while Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi is pegged at 4.8 per cent. NOTA is projected at 2.1 per cent.

At the state level, the survey indicates a comfortable edge for the ruling alliance, with the DMK front expected to cross 180 seats, while the AIADMK may be confined to around 54. In Coimbatore district, the DMK is projected to win 7 of the 10 constituencies.

The ANS field study underscores a clear tilt towards the ruling alliance in the western belt. A 32–18 split in favour of the DMK alliance suggests a structural shift in a region that has historically anchored the AIADMK’s electoral strength.

Political observers point to three broad factors behind the trend. First, the impact of welfare and infrastructure measures over the past five years—ranging from industrial growth to schemes such as free bus travel for women—appears to have widened the DMK’s social coalition in the region.

Second, alliance arithmetic. The presence of regionally influential partners and Left parties within the DMK-led front is seen as consolidating vote blocs, translating into a higher seat projection.

Third, signs of drift within the AIADMK’s support base. In the home turf of Edappadi K. Palaniswami, the projection of 18 seats is being read as a warning signal. Frictions over seat-sharing with allies such as the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Pattali Makkal Katchi, coupled with a possible shift among minority and undecided voters, may have contributed to the erosion.

The 2021 election saw the western region underpin the AIADMK’s position as a strong opposition. The current projection, however, suggests a reversal of that advantage. A 32-seat tally for the DMK alliance in this belt would represent a decisive political realignment and a direct test for the AIADMK leadership.

With the campaign entering its final stretch, parties are stepping up last-mile mobilisation. Given the fluidity of electoral contests, both camps acknowledge that the final outcome will hinge on how effectively they convert ground momentum into votes on polling day.