Assam’s Power Equation: Himanta Biswa Sarma, Sarbananda Sonowal, and the Gathering Storm

For two decades, Assam’s politics has revolved around the rise of one figure — Himanta Biswa Sarma (HBS). From his days as the Congress’s troubleshooter to becoming the BJP’s master poll architect and eventual Chief Minister, Sarma has thrived on audacity, manoeuvring, and an almost unmatched ability to bend both rivals and allies to his will.

But political invincibility has a shelf life. Today, Sarma’s brand of aggressive politics faces turbulence on multiple fronts: electoral setbacks, corruption taints, personal embarrassments, governance fatigue, and shifting signals from Delhi. Looming in the background is Sarbananda Sonowal, the BJP’s first Assamese Chief Minister, who though displaced, retains a clean image and latent legitimacy that could become relevant if the storm against Sarma gathers force.

I. Cracks in the Aura

1. Electoral Setbacks: The BTC Signal

The BJP-UPPL combine’s poor performance in the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) was not a local aberration but a political signal. Once Sarma’s laboratory of poll engineering, Bodoland’s drift towards the BPF shows grassroots erosion. For a leader who built his power on the promise of delivering votes, even small defeats carry symbolic weight.

2. Personal & Cultural Embarrassments

Two issues have pierced Sarma’s carefully cultivated armour of invincibility:

His wife’s name appearing in controversial contracts, blurring governance with personal gain.

The Zubeen Garg death case, where associates of Sarma are whispered into the narrative, turning a cultural icon’s death into a political wound. The police’s delay and selective action has deepened distrust in state institutions.

3. Corruption and the Kitchen Cabinet

For years, Sarma buried corruption talk under the avalanche of welfare schemes and PR blitz. That insulation is now thinning. His “right-hand men,” accused of kickbacks and misuse of power, have made corruption a legitimate, open talking point — undermining his credibility as a no-nonsense administrator.

4. Governance Deficit: Hollow Promises

The scrapping of green hydrogen projects — once showcased as “Advantage Assam” — has exposed the fragility of his economic narrative. Add to this the eviction drives fueling ethnic grievances, and the persistence of unemployment and migration. The charge is clear: Sarma has failed to perform Raj Dharma, the just and balanced governance expected of him.

II. Delhi Dynamics: Asset or Liability?

Sarma’s biggest strength has been his access to Amit Shah and the BJP high command. But what was once an asset now risks becoming over-dependence. Delhi’s loyalty is transactional: as long as Sarma delivers, he remains indispensable. The moment his liabilities outweigh his assets, Delhi will not hesitate to recalibrate.

This creates an uncomfortable paradox: Sarma’s power in Assam flows from Delhi, but his vulnerability also lies in Delhi’s shifting moods.

III. Sarbananda Sonowal: The Silent Counterweight

1. Contrasting Leadership Models

Sarma’s model: Aggressive, combative, Delhi-dependent, results-driven.

Sonowal’s model: Calm, dignified, culturally rooted, integrity-driven.

Delhi chose Sarma in 2021 because it valued results over symbolism. But fatigue with Sarma’s abrasive politics could make Sonowal’s clean image a credible fallback.

2. Delhi vs. Assam Legitimacy

Sarma is seen as Delhi’s man in Assam.

Sonowal is still remembered as Assam’s son in Delhi.

This distinction matters in a state where cultural pride and identity politics run deep.

3.Silence as Strategy

Sonowal’s reluctance to project himself as a challenger stems from three factors:

Fear of Delhi’s wrath, after being unseated in 2021.

Low morale, a hangover from his curtailed CMship.

Strategic patience, waiting for Sarma’s vulnerabilities to peak.

Ironically, Sonowal’s restraint — often mocked as weakness — could become his greatest strength if Delhi seeks a stabilising, non-controversial alternative.

IV. Scenario Analysis: Assam 2026 and Beyond

Scenario 1: Sarma Consolidates

HBS contains scandals with welfare populism, retains Delhi’s trust, and opposition remains fractured.

➡ BJP wins Assam 2026 under Sarma, but with narrower margins and higher dependence on Delhi.

Scenario 2: Delhi Switches Horses (Sonowal’s Return)

Delhi, wary of Sarma’s scandals and volatility, projects Sonowal as the clean consensus leader.

➡ BJP retains power with a “safe pair of hands,” but Assam BJP loses Sarma’s aggressive dynamism.

Scenario 3: Compromise Formula

Sarma remains CM face, but Sonowal is strengthened at the Centre as a counterbalance.

➡ BJP avoids rupture, but the rivalry becomes institutionalised, weakening organisational coherence.

Scenario 4: Storm Out of Control

Scandals, ethnic backlash, and governance failures converge; opposition regroups. Delhi dithers between HBS and Sonowal.

➡ BJP loses ground; Assam enters a volatile, fragmented political phase.

V. Strategic Takeaways

1. HBS is still Assam BJP’s strongest card, but his vulnerabilities are sharper than ever. His political survival now depends less on his own manoeuvring and more on Delhi’s patience.

2. Sonowal remains the silent counterweight — unlikely to challenge openly, but always available as Delhi’s fallback option. His cultural legitimacy and clean image give him residual relevance.

3. The real battle of 2026 may not be BJP vs. opposition, but Sarma’s combative model vs. Sonowal’s restrained model — with Delhi as the final arbiter.

4. If Assam politics has taught anything, it is that public fatigue with arrogance and scandal often creates space for quieter alternatives.

Himanta Biswa Sarma’s meteoric rise reshaped Assam’s politics. But his aggressive politics, once seen as invincible, now looks fatigued. Sarbananda Sonowal, written off in 2021, lingers as a patient shadow — not by action, but by contrast.

As Assam heads to 2026, the real question is not just whether the BJP wins, but which face of the BJP Assam will accept:

The ruthless strategist who delivers results but drags scandals, or

The quiet son of the soil whose integrity may yet become Delhi’s insurance policy.

The answer will not only redefine Assam’s political future but also test Delhi’s appetite for aggression versus stability in the  northeastern India.