Ladakh Unrest and the Himalayan Balancing Act

Leh witnessed violence on 24 September 2025 as protests demanding statehood and Sixth-Schedule protections escalated. While the immediate trigger was political, the incident cannot be seen in isolation. It unfolds against the backdrop of a longstanding strategic contest—the unresolved India–China rivalry across the Himalayas. Domestic unrest in Ladakh now intersects with Beijing’s carefully calibrated pressure points aimed at countering India’s growing presence in Arunachal Pradesh.

The Eastern Build-up and Western Pressure

India’s military posture in Arunachal Pradesh has strengthened steadily since 2010. New roads, bridges, advanced landing grounds, and mountain divisions have been deployed to ensure that the mistakes of 1962 are not repeated. Each Indian move in the east has historically been mirrored by Chinese activity in the west:

In 2013, China carried out a deep intrusion in Depsang, Ladakh.

In 2017, as India advanced its “Act East” initiatives, Beijing forced a standoff at Doklam.

In 2020, accelerated Indian infrastructure projects in Arunachal triggered the Galwan crisis, leading to India’s first combat casualties in 45 years.

Even in 2021, Chinese forces probed Arunachal’s Yangtse sector despite temporary disengagement.

The strategic message is unambiguous: fortify Arunachal, and the PLA will respond in Ladakh.

Kashmir: The Third Front

China’s two-front strategy has often been complemented by unrest in Kashmir, whether during the 2010 stone-pelting protests, the 2019 Pulwama–Balakot crisis, or the post-Article 370 turbulence. Pakistan’s persistent interference ensures India’s attention remains divided, giving Beijing a strategic advantage without direct engagement.

Ladakh’s Internal Politics

The recent protests in Leh underline a domestic dimension that carries strategic implications. Local discontent in Ladakh, while driven by political grievances, complicates India’s capacity to maintain a robust frontier posture against the PLA. In strategic terms, unrest in Leh can amplify China’s leverage without any direct action from Beijing.

Geopolitical Implications

China’s objective extends beyond tactical pressure. By keeping Ladakh unsettled and Arunachal contested, it seeks to:

1. Stretch India’s military and political resources across multiple fronts.

2. Maintain leverage with Pakistan, sustaining the perception of a two-front challenge.

3. Undermine India’s Act East policy by highlighting unresolved Himalayan vulnerabilities.

The Way Forward

For India, the challenge is to combine strong defence with political accommodation:

Heal Ladakh internally: Prioritise dialogue on statehood and constitutional safeguards to mitigate local discontent.

Balance the flanks: Continue Arunachal’s development while strengthening Ladakh with improved surveillance, logistics, and rapid-response capabilities.

Stabilize Kashmir: Prevent escalation in the Valley during periods of heightened China–India tension.

Strategic messaging: Pair infrastructure initiatives with clear diplomatic signals that Arunachal is non-negotiable, and that unrest in Ladakh will not weaken national resolve.

The Leh incidents of September 2025 demonstrate that national security is not just about troops and borders. Political trust, local aspirations, and governance capacity are integral to frontier defence. China has consistently exploited India’s vulnerabilities in Arunachal, Ladakh, and Kashmir. The response requires a dual approach: defend with strength, govern with foresight, and project strategic confidence on the global stage.