BJP Vision in Tamil Nadu Politics: Strategy to Reshape State Power

In Tamil Nadu, nearly 97% of the electorate has historically aligned with secular, democratic forces. These votes have largely consolidated behind the two dominant Dravidian formations — the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), however, appears to have concluded that it can emerge as a principal force in the State only by dismantling the AIADMK through the use of central authority. Fragmenting the AIADMK into multiple components, bringing weaker elements and those entangled in serious errors under its control, becomes a political necessity in this calculation.

At the ideological level, the strategy involves weakening politics rooted in secularism and social justice, and sharpening caste-based identity politics. The emergence of multiple caste leaders, elevated to public platforms, has raised questions in the political arena — including whether some among them have been politically “acquired.”

At present, the DMK-led alliance stands in direct opposition to the BJP at the Union level, rooted firmly in Tamil Nadu’s distinct political character. Previous electoral outcomes suggest this front commands close to 65% of the vote share. The Vikravandi and Erode East by-elections reaffirmed this trajectory, as did the successive victories of 2019, 2021 and 2024.

In the 2021 Assembly election, even when the current AIADMK alliance partners were united, they failed to defeat the DMK coalition. Today, these forces stand divided into several fragments. The BJP is aware that attaining power independently under such conditions is improbable. Why, then, was an alliance forged?

The answer lies in a larger objective: to alter the fundamental nature of Tamil Nadu politics from a DMK–AIADMK binary to a DMK–BJP contest. The political field is being recalibrated accordingly.

It is in this context that actor Vijay, who launched the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, has consistently directed his attacks at the DMK while refraining from criticising the BJP. From the Vikravandi conference to the recent Vellore meeting, his speeches have reflected this pattern. This has prompted public speculation on whether he has been drawn into a larger political design.

For the BJP, transforming itself into the principal ideological opponent in a State where 97% of voters align with a distinct socio-political philosophy requires breaking that coherence into multiple fragments. Weakening the AIADMK and, through Vijay, dividing what is otherwise a consolidated secular-democratic space becomes central to this approach.

There is also the perception that Vijay’s political movement has not been structured as a coherent alternative to the DMK in terms of ideology or organisation, and that it carries the appearance of a personality-driven grouping. Such a perception, too, serves a purpose — enabling a split in anti-BJP votes without reshaping the ideological discourse directly. Rather than engaging Tamil Nadu’s political thought head-on, the emphasis shifts to a singular anti-DMK narrative. That, observers note, is precisely what is unfolding.

The BJP’s roadmap for 2026 appears aligned to this assessment:

First, prevent a sweeping victory for the DMK-led alliance by reducing its vote share through Vijay’s intervention.

Second, contest no fewer than 50 to 60 seats under the lotus symbol within the AIADMK alliance framework and aim to secure around 30 seats.

Third, tactically utilise the AIADMK and its allies to its advantage, even at the cost of their electoral decline.

Finally, emerge post-2026 as the principal Opposition force and consolidate leadership of a broader front under its own command.

This, in essence, is the political blueprint being discerned in Tamil Nadu’s shifting landscape.